The NFL offseason just keeps getting crazier. Seemingly out of nowhere the trade rumors started. Hill wanted out of Kansas City and the Chiefs were shopping one of the league’s top receivers. Next thing you know the Dolphins are sending five draft picks to the Chiefs in exchange for Hill while also working out a long-term deal.
Tyreek Hill will now become the league’s highest paid receiver with a 4-year, $120 million deal that includes $72.2 million guaranteed. So who’s the winner in this trade? Odds are the Chiefs are going to come out on top. Sure, Hill is one of the most explosive and talented players in the game, but age and injuries are not on his side.
If we look at history, it’s clear that wide receivers start to experience a significant decline in performance around the age of 28. Hill is currently 28 years old. In 2021, only one of the top 30 receivers to end the season was older than 28. That was 29 year old Keenan Allen. I could see Hill doing well the next few years and still finishing as a top 15 receiver, but can he sustain that for four more seasons? It’s unlikely.
Hill also comes with a somewhat concerning injury history. In the last two seasons he has battled repetitive hamstring and quad strains. These muscular injuries to the lower body have a high rate of recurrence. Hill also suffered a heel injury in the playoffs this year and missed four games with a sternum fracture in 2019. He hasn’t missed many games, just six total in his six NFL seasons, but that could change.
This trade makes the Dolphins a much better team in the short-term, but the long term effects are going to be tough for Miami to overcome. The biggest winner here is Hill, who is taking home a ridiculous amount of money, but the Chiefs are also going to be glad they made this move.
