Inside Injuries got off to a hot start in week 1, with winning picks on 3/4 matchups we covered! Plus we correctly picked the over/under on 2 matchups. If you want to win more money this week, read up on which bets we like heading into week 2!
Here’s a quick intro into our analysis.
Team Health Scores (this is the number you see next to each of the teams listed below) – this tells you the overall health of the team. There are four categories. The higher the number, the healthier the team!
- Optimal: 7-10
- Good: 4-7
- Moderate: 2-4
- Poor: 0-2
In addition to the Team Health Score, our algorithm also computes a Health Score for the four key position groups (Offensive Skills, OL, DL, Secondary). If you’re looking for a more detailed breakdown of a team or matchup, become a subscriber!
Rams (Poor – 1.52) vs. Falcons (Optimal – 10)
The Falcons suffered a devastating fourth quarter loss to the Saints in week 1, but things are looking up for Atlanta. They come with the highest Team Health Score across the NFL. The Rams, on the other hand, don’t look so great. I’m still expecting them to win, but this will be close.
The only Falcons player who missed practice Wednesday was backup running back Damien Williams, who is nursing a rib injury.
Meanwhile the Rams had five players on their report, four who did not practice. Van Jefferson missed week 1 with a knee injury and is looking doubtful for week 2, which hurts their offense. Rookie RB Kyren Williams will be placed on IR and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury. Brian Allen underwent a minor procedure and is expected to be sidelined for 2-4 weeks. OT Joe Noteboom didn’t practice with a knee injury, and LB Leonard Floyd was limited with a knee injury.
The Falcons have an advantage in all four position matchups – offensive line, offensive skills, defensive line and secondary. They clearly aren’t as strong as a team overall, but health is on their side.
Spread: -10.5 Rams
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Inside Injuries Prediction: The Falcons will cover and keep this one within a touchdown.
Steelers (Good – 5.76) vs. Patriots (Poor – 2.52)
Despite losing T.J. Watt to a torn pectoral muscle in week 1, the Steelers head into week 2 with a better Team Health Score than the Patriots. The back injury to Mac Jones is a big reason why. Jones took a big hit that led to getting x-rays on his back following the game. All scans came back negative, and he has been practicing this week, but I’m expecting him to be very sore. Jones was able to get in a full practice Wednesday but was missing Thursday due to an illness. Ty Montgomery was placed on IR with a knee injury. DB Adrian Phillips also suffered a rib injury that forced him out of the game. He was limited Wednesday and could suit up in week 2 but won’t be 100%. Ja’Whaun Bentley was a surprise DNP to start the week with a toe injury, despite playing the entire game. If he can’t go it would be a huge loss for the defense.
In addition to losing Watt, Najee Harris also injured his foot. It’s a little unclear what is going on here as Harris missed a month of training camp with a Lisfranc sprain, but the Steelers say this is unrelated. It also looked more like a high ankle strain than a foot injury, but that’s not what is being reported. Either way, Harris is on track to play but isn’t going to be fully healed.
Spread: -2 Patriots
Over/Under: 40 points
Inside Injuries Prediction: Neither of these teams are in great shape after week 1, but injuries are going to have a greater effect on New England. The Patriots will win this, and it will be close. Take the under as both teams have injury issues to key offensive players.
Bills (Optimal – 9.0) vs. Titans (Good – 6.14)
These are two teams that are both pretty healthy coming out of week 1, but the Bills still have the clear advantage.
The Bills key injuries are to defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Tim Settle, who both missed practice Thursday. Meanwhile the Titans lost safety A.J. Moore for the season with an ankle injury. DT Da’Shawn Hand also suffered a torn quad, ending his season. That makes it seven total Titans on IR right now, which is a lot this early in the season. That’s following an injury-riddled 2021 season where they were one of the most injured teams in the league.
The Bills biggest advantage will be their offensive line (Optimal Health) over the Titans defensive line (Poor Health). Also their Offensive skills (Optimal Health) over the Titans secondary (Moderate Health).
Spread: -10 Bills
Over/Under: 48.5 points
Inside Injuries Prediction: Double digit favorites are always scary, but the Bills offense proved in week 1 that they’re back and better than ever. Take the Bills and the over.
For more in-depth injury analysis, Team Health Scores, and a position-by-position break down for every single team, become an Injury Insider! Right now we’re offering a 7 day FREE trial.
