Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had a down year by his standards in 2021. The soon-to-be 27 year old threw for 4,839 yards, 37 touchdowns, and a career-high 13 interceptions.
While other quarterbacks would be glad to put up that statline, Mahomes is held to a higher standard considering his past performances. His struggles largely were isolated to the first 12 games of the season, in which he threw for 3,384 yards and 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, averaging 282 yards per game. Over the final five games, he went off for 12 touchdowns to just one interception, and another 1,455 yards. In that span, his passer rating was 114.5.
He finished among the Top 10 in numerous statistical categories, including:
- Pass Attempts – 658 (#3)
- Deep Ball Attempts – 79 (#4)
- Red Zone Attempts – 109 (#6)
- Passing Yards – 4839 (#4)
- Air Yards – 4966 (#6)
- Passing TD – 37 (#4)
- Total Fantasy Points – 362 (#4)
Despite the relatively slow start, Mahomes managed to put together another solid season in which he was a Top 5 quarterback. His playoff win over Buffalo will go down in history, but things in 2022 could be different considering his new cast of receivers.
Health & Draft Analysis – On paper, trading Tyreek Hill is a huge loss for Mahomes. The two were one of the deadliest duos in NFL history, and Hill’s replacement – JuJu Smith-Schuster – doesn’t exactly instill the same fear in his opponents. Kansas City also added speedster Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was solid in Green Bay, but was known for being inconsistent. The good news is that Travis Kelce is still around and the Chiefs still employ one of the best coaching staffs in the league.
From a health perspective, Mahomes has been healthy for much of his career, only really missing time in 2019 after a patella dislocation. He did battle both turf toe and a concussion last season, which gives him an Elevated Injury Risk (14%) slightly. Otherwise, his Health Performance Factor is Peak (97%).
I’d expect yet another productive season from Mahomes, and he will likely finish near the Top 5 of all QBs yet again. He’s QB3 to us, and should be picked up in the third or fourth round.