Eagles TE Dallas Goedert stepped up in a big way last season after being named the team’s starting tight end in October.
The 27 year old saw career highs in receiving yards (830), yards per reception (14.8), and yards per target (10.9) as part of the improved Philadelphia offense. Unfortunately, it’s that same offense that could chip away at his productivity this time around.
Philly made a splash on draft night by trading for WR A.J. Brown, who was a star for the Titans. He will likely assume the WR1 role while 2020 draft picks Devonta Smith and Quez Watkins take steps forward in their careers. The Eagles also had one of the best ground offenses last year, and that shouldn’t change much as they enter 2022 with the #1 offensive line according to PFF.
If the Eagles decide to pass the ball more this season, it likely won’t be because of Goedert. Instead, it will be because of the other names listed above. That’s not to say he won’t play a role, considering he saw fairly limited opportunities last season but still managed to be highly productive.
Goedert finished 2021 outside the Top 10 in catches (56) and touchdowns (4) but was #5 among tight ends with 830 yards. He also found himself in the Top 10 of a few notable categories, including:
- Target Share – 18.6% (#8)
- Target Rate – 26.9% (#5)
- Air Yards Share – 19.7% (#9)
- ADOT – 8.8 yards (#8)
- Deep Targets – 8 (#9)
- Yards After Catch – 343 (#5)
- Yards Per Target – 10.9 (#1)
Health & Draft Analysis – On paper, Goedert has all the tools to be a Top 5 tight end in the league. Unfortunately, the offense he plays in likely won’t elevate him to that tier. The Eagles wanted to have a loaded receiving room, and that’s what they got. Meanwhile, QB Jalen Hurts is unlikely to throw for 4,000 yards, which – again – limits Goedert’s production potential.
From a health perspective, he is looking at an Elevated Injury Risk (16%) and a Peak Health Performance Factor (96%).
There’s no doubt he’s going to be productive again this year, and I have him as TE8, but he isn’t worth an early round selection. There should be better players available in the fifth and sixth rounds, so if you can get him in the seventh or eighth he’s going to be a steal.