Commanders RB Antonio Gibson had a stellar sophomore season in 2021, finishing in the Top 10 of fantasy scorers at the position. While his efficiency numbers did drop a little, his snap count shot up by 14% as he saw an additional 199 snaps, so a regression of some sort was expected.
It’s also worth noting that the offensive unit around him wasn’t exactly Pro Bowl caliber. Washington’s offense scored the 12th-fewest touchdowns in 2021, and their offensive line was inconsistent. In spite of this, Gibson managed to flash all of the tools he has that make him a dual-threat back. In each of his first two seasons, he’s seen 170+ carries, 40+ targets, and 35+ receptions.
Gibson also was a red zone threat last season, with 43 carries inside the 20 (#6), 25 carries inside the 10 (T-#6), and 12 carries inside the 5 (T-#7). Washington loves using him in these situations, which is a major reason he’s scored 10+ touchdowns in both of his seasons with them.
But it’s not just his red zone and receiving numbers that tell his story. Gibson finished in the Top 10 of rushing yards (1,037), total TDs (10), carries (258), evaded tackles (87), and rushing yards per game (64.8).
Health & Draft Analysis – There is a lot to like about Gibson, but the team he plays for doesn’t inspire much hope. Preseason predictions point to a worse offensive line, which is sure to limit Gibson if proven true. Also, J.D. McKissic is back, who is likely to eat into some of Gibson’s receptions and targets.
Putting those concerns aside, Gibson is likely to have another 900+ yard season. I’m hesitant to say another 1,000+ yard season simply due to a lack of faith in the Commanders to draw up a cohesive offense. I like him as a third or fourth round RB, especially if you can get him in the fourth. From a health perspective, our algorithm predicts an Elevated Injury Risk (23%) due to his struggles with turf toe, hamstring strains, and a shin stress fracture. His Health Performance Factor is Above Average (76%).